Grasping at straws: New years resolution system

Didn't think I would respond to this challenge, but woke up this morning with an idea that would fit this, so here I am.

Grasping at straws:

• Whenever a PC does something dangerous they pull a straw, cord, twig or something similar from a bunch with one which is noticibly shorter/different while they cannot see the odd one out.
  
• Each long/common straw they draw is discarted.
• If they draw the short/different one, they are fucked. 

Variables:

Straw amount: 

The obvious way to tailor this resolution system to your needs is to vary the amount of good straws vs the amount of bad ones. 

The initial baseline you set will say something about how dangerous the world is/how capable the PCs are.

Varying up straw amount within a game will allow you to basically approach all die rolls, but in a shittier way if there are lots of different probablities, as you would have to have different bushels or count out the odds before each draw. 

However, you could have each PC have their own 'hand' and vary amount based on level (lower levels, worse odds), class (wizards have magic, but get in trouble faster), background (more skills = more lived experience = fewer good straws), etc. for more stable odds (less work) with varying odds for different characters. 

Straw recovery:

Another lever you can use is straw recovery. Depending on when you recover straw it starts to represent an abstraction of different things. If you never recover straw it might represent the luck of the star you were born under, if you only recover it in a safe place it is closer to your endurance, if you recover each time you fail it is more a narrative pacing device, and if you recover each conflict it represents your ability to get the better of your opponent. 

There is also no reason to assume straw recovery is instantaneous. Maybe you regain one straw for each way you spend in a safe location, rather than a set amount of time for recovery in general. Maybe you regain one straw for each sacrifice you make at the temple of your guardian spirit. This too says something about what is being abstracted with the straws.

Thougths

I think this would work alright. It doesn't really do anything particularly special: changing the amount of good straws vs bad straws is not inherrently different from changing the probilities on a dice. The only novel addition is that each succes increases the likely hood of future failure, though this is something you can simulate in other ways. Beggar's Choice, a small, free game by Adventures Buffo, does this by literally counting how often you try something risky. 

However, I have argued before that form and content both inform the experience. I can imagine the russian roulette-like effect feeling quite different from rolling a die with different probabilities each time. Each succes brings you closer to certain failure. For this reason, if I would ever use this, it would be in a game where desparation is a big part of the PCs experiences, though I think the chance that I would ever use this is small.